Oklahoman: Horn, Trump approval varies by gender, while Sanders has big edge with young voters, poll shows

This is a potion of an article that appeared in the Oklahoman. Read the full article at Oklahoman.com.

Support for U.S. Rep. Kendra Horn and her vote to impeach President Donald Trump is much stronger among women, while attitudes about the president also differ by gender in the congressional district that includes most of Oklahoma County.

A recent poll by Amber Integrated, of Oklahoma City, showed 52% of women surveyed in the 5th Congressional District approved of Horn’s vote last month to impeach the president for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. The poll showed 42% of men in the district supported Horn’s vote.

Horn, of Oklahoma City, is the only Democrat in the state’s congressional delegation; she was the only one of the five U.S. House members from the state to vote for Trump’s impeachment.

In the poll, taken in the days immediately following the impeachment vote, 49% of women said they approved of how Horn was doing her job, with 31% approving strongly. By contrast, 41% of men approve of the job Horn is doing in her first term, with 24% approving strongly.

Overall, 45% of those surveyed approved of the job Horn is doing, with 28% approving strongly, while 42% disapproved of the job Horn is doing, with 37% strongly disapproving. The undecided was 13%.

This survey was conducted from December 18-20 and included a pool of 500 registered voters in the 5th Congressional District. The results were weighted based on age, gender, party affiliation and level of education and have a margin of error of 4.38% at a 95% confidence interval.

Independents and the impeachment vote

Horn won the seat in 2018 in a major upset over Republican incumbent Steve Russell. The state and national Republican Party organizations have made recapturing the seat a top priority for 2020. Eight Republicans have filed statements of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission.

Trump won the district with 54% of the vote in 2016, well below his winning margin statewide.

The district includes most of Oklahoma County and Pottawatomie and Seminole counties. Party registration is 44% Republican, 37% Democrat, 18% independent and less than 1% Libertarian. Independent votes will likely be crucial to Horn's success in 2020 because of the district's partisan breakdown.

Jackson Lisle, a pollster and partner at Amber Integrated, said Horn is popular among Democrats, with a 75% overall approval rating and 50% who say they strongly approve of her performance in office.

“That support looks like it will translate to votes, with 72% of Democrats saying they plan to vote for her over any Republican challenger.

“Horn is also popular among independents, with a 72% approval rating. That support, however, is less enthusiastic than it is with Democrats; just 26% of independents say they strongly approve versus 44% who somewhat approve of the congresswoman’s performance.”

Lisle said job approval among independents for Horn doesn’t necessarily translate into support for her reelection.

“That begs the question: Why are some independent voters saying they approve of Congresswoman Horn’s performance in office but may not vote for her?” Lisle said.

“The answer may be impeachment. Among the independent voters who say they are not voting for Horn, one-third of them cite her impeachment vote as the driving factor.”

Beth Bunger